The Celtics fell short of another NBA Finals appearance. They still need to find a way to take the next step as an organization. With another important summer coming, here are five early predictions for the Celtics’ offseason:
Brogdon embraced a new role this season. He won the Sixth Man of the Year award after averaging 14.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game off the Boston bench. He often went on individual spurts that either saved the Celtics when they were sputtering or pushed them far ahead when they were rolling. He provided consistent offense all season until an injury derailed him in the playoffs. He gave Boston a new dynamic.
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The Celtics could still reallocate resources. Outside of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they didn’t have a ton of perimeter size or length. They could use another big, athletic wing — even if it comes at the expense of a quality guard. If they move Brogdon, they would still have Marcus Smart and Derrick White as capable starters plus Payton Pritchard who is worthy of a rotation spot somewhere. The Brogdon addition seemed like one that would make a difference deep in the playoffs. It could have potentially paid off if he’d stayed healthy, but he ran into an elbow issue. At the same time, the development of White’s 3-point shot left Brogdon as more of a luxury than a necessity.
The Celtics would still miss Brogdon, but he should have value around the league after staying healthy through most of a productive season. It could be helpful to move off his contract, which still includes two more years at $22.5 million per season. They could do it as a salary dump of sorts to position themselves better for the impact of the new collective bargaining agreement or as a trade piece to acquire a different type of player. Either way, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Celtics traded Brogdon this offseason.
(Patrick Smith / Getty Images)2. The Celtics will not trade Jaylen Brown
Brown did not have a good series against the Heat. He recognized how poorly he played during the Game 7 loss to Miami. He needs to stem the turnover issues that have popped up consistently deep in the playoffs. He needs to avoid the tunnel vision that occasionally takes him captive. Given the restrictions of the new collective bargaining agreement and the way the last couple of seasons have ended, it’s fair to question whether the Celtics will ever be able to win a championship with Tatum and Brown as their two best players and taking up a massive amount of their team’s salary.
The Celtics still won’t deal Brown this summer. Even if they wanted to consider such a massive change to their core, now would not be the right time to move on the idea. Brown has just one year left on his existing contract. Though he is now eligible to sign a supermax extension with Boston, no other team that traded for him would be able to offer him the same contract extension. The extend-and-trade rules limit what a trade partner could offer Brown immediately; he would be crazy to accept even the biggest possible offer a team could give him under such circumstances. So, if the Celtics trade him, the receiving team would likely be acquiring Brown without any promise that he would stay beyond the final year of his contract. That’s usually not the best recipe for maximizing the return in a trade.
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Plus, Brown is really good. He’s still just 26. The Celtics have accomplished plenty already with him as a franchise pillar. They haven’t won a title with him, but they have come close enough that taking a torch to the current nucleus would be a major risk.
3. The Celtics will sign Brown to a supermax extension
Brown signing a five-year, $295 million extension this summer seems the most likely outcome, especially after Brad Stevens’ recent comments about the wing’s future. Even if Brown wonders what life would be like on another team, players usually accept the supermax extension and figure out the rest later.
For the Celtics, a similar mentality could be warranted. They would have one year before Brown’s extension kicks in and two years before Tatum’s seemingly inevitable extension does the same; that’s enough time to give the current core another shot or two before settling on a more decisive path for the future. If Tatum and Brown take a step forward and win a ring, it would likely be obvious to keep them together for as long as possible. If the Celtics keep flopping in a similar fashion in the playoffs, they could be tempted to try a different formula instead, especially as the new CBA threatens to deplete the talent of their supporting cast.
Brown’s an All-Star who keeps himself in great shape and should be entering his prime years. As long as he stays healthy, he should have trade value throughout his next contract. If the Celtics eventually want to move on, they can do so while he still has years left on his deal and suitors won’t need to be so concerned about a flight risk. Boston would not be able to trade Brown for one year after he signs the extension agreement, but would be trying to win with him next season anyway. As disappointing as their Eastern Conference Finals loss was, the Celtics could be just a few small tweaks or a few minor improvements away from achieving a more desirable outcome. If they eventually decide they aren’t, well, they would still have time to deal with that one day.
O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)4. The Celtics will pursue a starting caliber power forward
Al Horford is 37 years old. The big frontcourt with him and Robert Williams won’t be useful forever. It has already shown cracks; the Celtics were blasted by 19 points over the 22 minutes those two shared the court during the Eastern Conference Finals. The bigger groups couldn’t keep up with Miami on either end of the court. The Celtics can thrive with smaller lineups in many matchups, but could use another good option to put more size and athleticism on the court — especially if aging robs Horford of any more mobility. The Boston defense has often been at its best with Brown and Tatum at shooting guard and small forward, rather than each of those guys one position up.
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How important can a younger, more explosive power forward be? Just look at the playoff impact of Aaron Gordon and Andrew Wiggins over the last couple of seasons. The Celtics have traded their first-round pick in this year’s draft, but still have enough future draft capital to load up a significant offer this summer. They could try to land a big fish like Lauri Markannen, Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby.
Even if those guys are unrealistic options, other targets could be more available. John Collins, Bojan Bogdanovic and Cam Johnson could all hit the market for one reason or another — and that’s without getting into sign-and-trade possibilities like Kyle Kuzma who is expected to turn down his player option for the 2023-24 season. Whoever the Celtics pursue, they will need to proceed with the limitations of the new collective bargaining agreement in mind; adding too much future salary could eventually be detrimental. Still, power forward looms as a possible need.
Especially if…
Williams’ future could be dictated by the rest of the Celtics’ summer. He could certainly end up staying in Boston, but the guess here is that one of the teams with cap space will offer him a deal too rich for Stevens to match. I just detailed why Boston should prioritize the power forward position, so why would it make sense to fail to match an offer sheet for Williams? Mazzulla didn’t always trust him. Sam Hauser could take over some of Williams’ leftover minutes next season. And if the Celtics do search for a starting caliber power forward, as I predicted they will, it could make sense to avoid spending significant money on a backup.
(Top photo: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)
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